LIVE MARKETS Reddit’s WSB founder seeks to emulate Pelosi’s trading strategies via new portfolio
- Most major indexes turn red, but bounce off session lows
- Consumer Staples Worst Performer in S&P Sector, Energy Jumps
- The Euro STOXX 600 index slides ~0.3%
- Dollar slips; gold, bitcoin gain; raw jumps
- The 10-year US Treasury yield rises to ~1.85%
March 8 – Welcome home to real-time market coverage from Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at [email protected]
REDDIT’S WSB FOUNDER SEEKS TO IMITATE PELOSI’S TRADING STRATEGIES VIA NEW WALLET (1052 EST / 1552 GMT)
The founder of Reddit’s wallstreetbets forum, Jaime Rogozinski, on Tuesday announced the approval of the listing of the “insider wallet” on the Seychelles MERJ Exchange, a fund that tracks the trading strategies of members of the US Congress, including the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Join now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com
The portfolio will be regularly rebalanced to reflect Pelosi’s trading strategies based on its public disclosures, as tracked by unusualwhales.com, a service selling financial data.
Pelosi’s stock market performance ranked sixth in 2021 in Congress, with Republican Congressman Austin Scott leading, according to an analysis by unusualwhales.com.
Discussion of Pelosi’s trades is a recurring theme on social media, including wallstreetbets, where retail investors banded together a year ago to coordinate the frenzied buying of video game retailer GameStop (GME.N) and other companies, which eventually became known as meme stocks. Read more
Pelosi and other US lawmakers have come under scrutiny on social media as many users believe the US Speaker of the House may have an edge on Wall Street.
In her latest periodic transaction report, the senior Democrat revealed that her husband, financier Paul Pelosi, exercised call options on January 21 to buy shares of Apple (AAPL.O), Walt Disney (DIS. N) and PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) for a combined $2.9 million, based on option strike prices. Read more
However, tracking legislative portfolio changes may not be so straightforward.
While the law requires lawmakers to disclose stock trades by themselves or their family members within 45 days, reports are typically filed within days of actual purchases and sales, making it potentially difficult for traders aimed at mimicking the specific transactions of lawmakers.
TRADE BALANCE, NFIB, CONSUMER CREDIT: DEMAND/INFLATION TANGO (1030 EST/1530 GMT)
Data released Tuesday — and Monday evening — tells market watchers what they already knew: Demand is robust, circling around a slowly recovering supply chain.
The gap between the value of goods and services imported into the United States and those of domestic origin exported abroad (USTBAL = ECI) widened more than expected in January to $89.7 billion, the largest deficit ever recorded. Read more
The Commerce Department’s reading was $2.6 billion above consensus forecast and was driven by surging imports as demand in the United States continued to outpace the rest of the world, a situation that could be bad news. bodes well for economic growth in the first quarter.
“Net exports have weighed on GDP over the past six quarters and early data suggests another negative contribution in the first quarter,” writes Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, adding that “in Overall, trade flows are at historic highs despite supply chain disruptions and logistical challenges.”
“The deficit is poised to remain high for now due to continued strong import demand,” Farooqi said.
The closely watched merchandise trade deficit with China remained stable at $36.4 billion.
In a separate report, small business owners got grumpier in February, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB). Read more
The NFIB’s trade optimism index (USOPIN=ECI) fell 1.4 points to land at 95.7, the sourest reading since January 2021, weighed down by inflation fears.
“Inflation continues to be an issue on Main Street, leading more homeowners to raise selling prices again in February,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.
The percentage of respondents identifying high inflation as their biggest problem hit a 42-year high, and the net percentage of participants raising average selling prices hit a 48-year high.
But it’s not all bad news, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“Investment intentions are down two points but are holding up well and are consistent with the view that business fixed investment will grow at a double-digit pace over the next year,” he wrote.
It should be noted that the NFIB is a politically active membership organization, and the index was last lower the month President Joe Biden was sworn in.
Finally, in older news, on Monday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released its Consumer Credit Outstanding (USCRED=ECI) data, which rose $6.84 billion, marking an unexpected deceleration. and missing estimates of a country mile.
Economists expected total consumer credit debt to accelerate by $23.8 billion in January.
Total consumer credit outstanding currently stands at approximately $4.4 trillion.
An increase in non-revolving credit, which includes large items such as automobiles and tuition fees, did the heavy lifting, as revolving credit, or credit card debt, remained essentially unchanged.
This goes a bit against the trend; credit card spending has long since surpassed pre-pandemic levels, while non-revolving credit, a smaller slice of the total pie, has yet to recoup the ground lost to COVID.
It pays to remember that outstanding credit is not the same as consumer spending. A high savings rate has left the average consumer with plush piggy banks and fat wallets.
After a green start, Wall Street turned around in morning trade, extending Monday’s selloff, which confirmed a correction for the Dow and a bear market for the Nasdaq.
Crude prices continued to climb, taking energy stocks (.SPNY) with them.
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES: FIGHTING TO HOLD THE FEBRUARY LOW (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
The CME e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures have been beaten pretty hard over the past three trading days. In fact, they ended Monday at their lowest level since mid-May 2021, sending them down 19.6% from their November 19 closing record.
It should be noted that the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) ended Monday down 20.1% from its record close on November 19, officially putting it in bearish territory.
The overnight action saw the futures fall as low as 13,103.25, before falling back. With this reversal, futures have yet to breach their February 24 intraday low at 13,025.75:
Meanwhile, the daily RSI, at just over 30.00, is trying to stabilize above its February 23rd low at 27.90. If so, this momentum indicator will have the potential to establish a second higher low from its late January low of 17.533.
Such a convergence could signal the building of positive momentum and, therefore, the potential for a surprise reversal to the upside.
In this case, however, the futures should still face strong resistance in the form of the descending 30-day moving average (DMA) which has been consistently plateauing since the beginning to mid-January.
Additionally, since late November, the RSI has exhibited bearish behavior as it was unable to muster enough strength to reclaim the 70.00 overbought threshold.
So regardless of strength, traders will be watching future action closely against the 30-DMA, as well as the RSI, to build confidence in the sustainability of any rebound. Read more
On a break of 13,025, next support is at the mid-May low of 12,896. This is just ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire March-2020/November advance. 2021 at 12,873.57.
FOR TUESDAY LIVE MARKET PUBLICATIONS BEFORE 0900 EST/1400 GMT – CLICK HERE:
Join now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com
Terence Gabriel is a market analyst at Reuters. Opinions expressed are his own.
Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.